Nifty Futures analysis for 27-09-2017

“2017, the year of fewest market correction,”                                                                                              -Business standard in it’s THE SMART INVESTOR page on 26th September 2017.

Stating in one of its paragraphs “To put it in perspective, the year 2007, the peak of the bull market for global equities, the Nifty and the Dow had 41 & 30 trading sessions, respectively, of one percent or more decline.”                                                                                                                                                       It states that Benchmark Nifty has posted declines of over 1% only on six occasions this year. It, in one of its paragraph, shows the concern about the low volatility that existed the world over and it again justifies it by saying that, this year there is lack of big uncertainties among other reasons.

“Current fall, a healthy correction, say, experts.”                                                                                     -Headlines on the Market Watch page of Businessline, page 11, Chennai edition.

The opinions expressed in this article inspires a lot of confidence and optimism in the current stage of the bull market. However, in the last paragraph of the article, it states that the FII’S have sold approximately Rs.20,700 crores of stocks and the DII’s has brought approximately Rs.26,000 crores of stock in the month of August & September till date. The mutual fund industry which has almost all the retail participation is one of the biggest investors at this stage.

Apparently, as per bulletins, there is a lot of optimism in the market as of now. Although, I believe that this outlook of the same media might turn around at the end of the correction as mentioned below.

 Nifty Futures as mentioned yesterday, the 5- wave up move which started from 26 Dec 2016 looks complete and 3-wave correction is in progress. This correction may take some more weeks to complete and should retrace more below 9710 and possibly up to 9527 level where it fills the two gap up openings in the daily chart and also reaches to the wave-4 territory of the previous 5-wave advance.The detailed chart is posted in my yesterday’s posting.

I have not suggested any positional trade yet and am looking for a bounce up to 9980 – 10015 levels for creating a short position with an all-time top at 10189 with a stop loss for the targets mentioned in the previous paragraph.

 

nifty future 60 min -260917.jpg
Nifty Futures 60 min chart

 

The day traders can Buy Nifty Futures above 9905 with a stop loss of 9878 for a target price of 9969 -9980 levels and sell it below 9859 with a stop loss of 9906 for the target of 9801 – 9792 levels.

For further trades or queries,
write back @ vinayagrawal1411@gmail.com

The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report, does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company. The author(s) has followed “blackout periods” that prohibit analysts from trading securities of the companies they follow for 30 days before and 5 days after they issue a research report about the company, and prohibits analysts from trading against their most recent recommendations—subject to exceptions for unanticipated significant changes in the personal financial circumstances of the beneficial owner of a research analyst account. The author(s), or a member of their household, does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company. The author(s) does not act as a market maker/promoter/beneficiary in the subject company’s securities. The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

 

 

 

 

Author: Vinay Agrawal

VINAY AGRAWAL is SEBI registered Research Analyst. (Reg no INH000004501) with an excellent grip on technicals analysis, fundamentals and equity derivatives. Vinay Agrawal is a Technical Analyst. He has a vast experience of 26 years in the financial markets. He is the director of Blue chips corporate services Pvt Ltd, which is engaged in stock broking. Disclaimer: Investment are subject to market risk. No representations shall be entered that the predictions made by us herein will be profitable or otherwise. Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions. The information is based on our personal assessment/judgement and we shall not be liable for any losses and damage.

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